Every month I pull the local numbers so you don't have to. October was the month mortgage rates climbed to 7.40%, the highest in almost three years, and you can see it in the data: far fewer buyers went under contract, all across Los Angeles. But not every neighborhood felt it the same way. Here's what happened in Marina del Rey, Venice, Santa Monica, and Manhattan Beach, and what it means for you.
The big picture: all of LA slowed down
Across Los Angeles County, 2,249 homes went under contract in October. That's down 45% from last October, and the lowest month in at least five years. Meanwhile, the number of homes for sale barely moved (16,950, down 0.5%), and new listings fell 8%.
So the market didn't flood with homes. Buyers just stepped back, all at once, when rates jumped. This isn't a Westside story. It's a rates story. But look closer, and some neighborhoods felt it a lot more than others.
Neighborhood by neighborhood
Marina del Rey: tipping toward buyers
Marina del Rey felt it most. Only 2 homes went under contract in October, down from about 20 a year ago. Closed sales fell 41%, to 13. At the same time, there are 134 homes for sale, up 30% from last year, even though new listings are down 9%.
That's the same pattern I wrote about in October, only stronger: not a wave of new homes, just homes sitting. A lot of what's listed here is priced like rates never went up. Condos are having the hardest time. But well-priced homes still sell, and I've seen canal homes around $3 million recently that honestly felt like a steal.
Venice: sellers are holding off
Venice saw pending sales fall 75%, to just 5 homes. But its story is different from the Marina's. New listings dropped 35% and the number of homes for sale is down 17%, to 105. Venice sellers aren't sitting. They're waiting to list at all.
Closed sales were actually up 33%, to 20. That's not a sign of strength. Closings reflect deals made a month or two earlier, before rates jumped.
Santa Monica: right in line with LA
Santa Monica tracked the county almost exactly. Pending sales fell 45%, to 29, while closings held fairly steady at 47 (down 4%). There are 260 homes for sale, down 9% from last year, and new listings fell 15%. Steady supply, fewer buyers.
Manhattan Beach: more homes, fewer buyers
Manhattan Beach held up best. Pending sales fell 25%, to 21, the smallest drop of any area here. Closings were up 27%, to 33, a strong finish for deals made over the summer.
But watch this: new listings jumped 69% from last year, to 44. More sellers are coming to market just as fewer buyers are signing. Heading into winter, that's a lot more competition for every buyer in the South Bay.
What it means for you
If you're buying: this is the most negotiating room I've seen in years, especially in Marina del Rey. Look closely at homes that have been sitting, ask what's behind them, and make an offer based on the comps, not the list price. Get fully underwritten first, so your offer is the clean, certain one sellers want right now.
If you're selling: price for today's buyers, not last spring's. Your first offers are usually your best, so aim to sell in the first two weeks. With fewer buyers out there, an overpriced listing doesn't just sit. It goes stale and invites lowball offers.
If you're staying put: mark November 30. That's the deadline in LA County to ask the Assessor for a Decline-in-Value review, a temporary property tax reduction if your home's market value fell below its assessed value as of January 1, 2026. If you bought near the 2022 peak, especially a condo, it may be worth a look. The application (Form RP-87) is free and on the LA County Assessor's website. I'm not a tax advisor, but I'm happy to pull your comps so you can decide.
How to read these numbers
Pending sales show where we're headed. A pending sale is a home that just went under contract. Closed sales are homes that finished escrow, usually from deals made a month or two earlier. When pending drops and closings don't, the slowdown is still on its way.
Small numbers swing a lot. In a neighborhood like Marina del Rey, a few deals either way can move the percentages dramatically. Watch the direction over several months, not one.
These are early counts. I pulled these numbers in early November, and pending sales often tick up as agents update their listings. I'll note any big changes next month.
Want the numbers for your street?
Every block moves a little differently, and these numbers are only part of the story. Thinking about buying, selling, or just curious what your home is worth today? Call or text me at (949) 584-5791, and I'll send you a quick read on your neighborhood.
Related: Pending Home Sales Just Hit a Record Low · How to Spot a Stale Listing (and What to Offer) · The Loan Process in Plain English
Source: CRMLS, residential (single-family, condo, and townhouse), October 2026 vs. October 2025, as of November 9, 2026.
