The National Association of Realtors just reported something we haven’t seen in the 25 years they’ve been tracking it. Pending home sales, meaning contracts buyers actually signed, fell 7.3% in September to an index of 66.0. That’s the lowest reading on record. Not the lowest since 2020. Not since 2008. Ever.
Signings are down 11.3% from a year ago. And here’s the part that caught my eye: the West got hit hardest of any region, down 9.2% for the month and 15% from last year. That’s us.
Why it’s happening
In a word: rates. NAR’s chief economist, Lawrence Yun, pinned September on “fast-rising mortgage rates,” and the math backs him up. NAR estimates that when rates go from 6% to 7%, nearly 6 million fewer Americans can afford the monthly payment on a median-priced home (about $435,000) with 10% down. That’s a lot of people quietly stepping back.
So buyers are sitting out, and sellers are sitting tight. Both sides are waiting for rates to move. The silver lining is that very few homes are distressed sales, which is why prices have held steady even as buyers pulled back.
What it means here on the Westside
This is a buyer story, not a supply story, and that changes how I’m advising both sides.
If you’re selling: when buyers are this scarce, pricing right isn’t a suggestion, it’s the whole game. My philosophy hasn’t changed: price to the market in your first two weeks, because your first offers are usually your best. I’m watching it happen in Marina del Rey right now. Sellers list high, sit, and eventually cut. By then, the buyers who were most excited have moved on. An overpriced listing this fall doesn’t just sit. It goes stale, racks up days on market, and trains buyers to lowball you.
If you’re buying: honestly, you’re in a better negotiating position than you’ve been in years. One in five listings (20.5%) took a price cut in October, the highest share for that month since 2022. Sellers who listed expecting last spring’s market are meeting this fall’s reality, and the motivated ones will make a deal. That doesn’t mean lowballing everything you see. The well-priced homes still move. The ones that have been sitting are where your opportunity is.
What I’m watching
Yun thinks rates “could be topping out,” since they’ve already climbed much faster than the Fed’s own rate hikes. The early signs are encouraging: the 30-year fixed fell to 7.18% in Freddie Mac’s latest survey, its third straight weekly drop. I’ll keep updating this post as that number moves. But one good month won’t bring buyers back. They need to see affordability actually get better, not just stop getting worse.
The market isn’t broken. It’s waiting. And while it waits, the sellers who price honestly and the buyers who stay ready are the ones who’ll come out ahead.
Related: [The Loan Process in Plain English] · [Your ARM Is About to Reset] ·
Wondering where your home or your search fits in all this? Every neighborhood moves a little differently, and the national numbers only tell part of the story. If you’re thinking about selling, I’ll tell you honestly what your home would sell for today. If you’re buying, I’ll help you spot the listings worth a closer look. Either way, it’s a conversation, not a commitment. Call or text me at (949) 584-5791.
